The ‘False Break’ Trading Strategy (Contrarian Forex Trading)

When
was the last time you entered a trade and it immediately moved against
you even though you felt confident the market was going to move in your
favor? When was the last time you traded a breakout and got stopped out?
I’m willing to bet you’ve experienced one or both of these things
recently in your own trading, and I’m also willing to bet that me or one
of my students probably took the opposite side of one of these trades
that seemed to ‘fake you out’ of your position…
You see,
false-breaks happen all the time in the markets; they are a result of
the ‘herd mentality’ that causes people to buy the top of a move or sell
the bottom. As price action traders, we are in a unique position to
take advantage of false-breaks and of the weak ‘herd mentality’ that so
many amateur traders possess.
I have made most of my money as a trader by using contrarian trading approaches like false-breaks and my proprietary
fakey trading strategy.
It is the power of contrarian trading and using false-break patterns
and fakey setups that allows myself and other savvy price action traders
to profit from other traders’ misfortunes. This may sound a little
harsh, but it’s the reality of trading that the majority of traders lose
money, informed and skilled traders make money, and the ‘pigs get
slaughtered’, as the saying goes.
I hope there are light bulbs going off in your head now,
because this article is all about contrarian thinking, false-breaks,
and how to take advantage of the ‘herd mentality’ that causes so many
traders to enter right when the market is about to change direction…
So what exactly is a false-break?
I thought you’d never ask! Joking, I know you are probably thinking that right now, so here you go…
A
false-break can be defined as a ‘deception’ by the market; a test of a
level that results in a break of that level but the market then retracts
and does not sustain itself above or below that level. In other words,
the market does not close outside of the level being tested; rather it
leaves behind a false-break of it. These false-breaks are huge pieces of
evidence for impending market direction, and we need to learn to use
them to our advantage instead of becoming their victim.
Here is a visual example of a false-break of a key market level:

Essentially,
a false-break can be thought of as a contrarian move that ‘sucks’ the
over-committed side of the market out. The concept is to wait for the
price movement to clearly show that a market has committed to one side
of a trade and that they would be ‘forced’ to liquidate their
position(s) on a strong reversal in the other direction. Typically, we
see these scenarios unfold as a trending market becomes extended and all
the amateurs jump in right before the counter-trend retrace, or at key
support and resistance levels or at consolidation breakout scenarios.
The
herd mentality causes traders to enter the market typically only when
it ‘feels’ safe. However, this is the deception; trading off feeling and
emotion is exactly why most traders lose money in the markets. Many
traders become deceived because the market looks very strong or very
weak, so they think it’s a no-brainer to just jump in with that
momentum. However, the truth of the matter is that markets ebb and flow
and they never move in a straight line for very long. This is known as
“reversion to the mean” and it’s something I expand on significantly in
my advanced Forex
trading course.
We
really have to use logic and counter-intuitive or ‘contrarian’ thinking
to profit off of the weak-minded herd mentality that dominates most
traders’ minds. This is why it’s very important to remain disciplined in
the area of trading false-breaks, rejections and failures, and why I
love trading them so much.
Types of False Breaks
1. Classic Bull and Bear traps at key market levels
A
bull or bar trap is typically a 1 to 4 bar pattern that is defined by a
false-break of a key market level. These false-breaks occur after large
directional moves and as a market approaches a key level. Most traders
tend to think a level will break just because a market has approached it
aggressively, they then buy or sell the breakout and then many times
the market will ‘fake them out’ and form a bull or bear trap.
A
bull trap forms after a move higher, the amateurs who were on the
sidelines watching a recent strong move unfold cannot take the
temptation anymore, and they jump in just above or at a key resistance
level since they feel confident the market now has the momentum to break
above it. The market then breaks slightly above the level and fills all
breakout orders, and then falls lower as the big boys come in and push
the market lower, leaving the amateurs ‘trapped’ in a losing long
position.
2. False-break of consolidation
False
breaks of consolidation or trading ranges are very common. It’s easy to
fall into the trap of thinking a trading range is going to breakout,
only to see it reverse back into the body of the range. The best way to
avoid this trap is to simply wait until there is a clear close outside
of the trading range on the daily chart, and then you can begin to look
for price action trading signals in the direction of the breakout.
3. Fakey’s (inside bar false-breaks)
The
Fakey setup is one of my all-time favorite price action setups and
learning to trade it will do a lot for helping you to understand market
dynamics. Essentially, the Fakey is a price action pattern that requires
there to be a false-break of an inside bar setup. So, once you have an
inside bar setup, you can watch for a false-break of the inside bar and
the mother bar. Now, I am not going to get into all the different
versions of the fakey trading strategy today or the different ways to
trade it, but you can learn everything about my proprietary
forex fakey trading strategy in my professional Forex trading course.
Here’s
an image of two Fakey setups, note that one has a pin bar as the
false-break and other does not, these are just two of the variations of
the Fakey setup:
False-breaks can create long-term trend changes
As
price action traders,
we can use the price action of a market to anticipate false-breaks and
look for them at key levels as they will often set off significant
changes in price direction or even a change in trend from these key
levels.
We need to pay attention to the ‘tails’ of candles that
occur at or near key levels in the market. Ask yourself how prices
reacted during each daily session…where did they close? The close is the
most important level of the day, and often if a market fails to close
beyond a key market level, it can signal a significant false-break.
Often, prices will probe a level or attempt to break out, but by the
close of the daily bar price has rejected that level and ‘tailed out’,
showing a false-break or false-test of the level. A failure of the
market to close beyond a key market level can lead to a large
retracement or a change of trend. Thus, the close of a price bar is the
most important level to watch, and the daily chart close is what I
consider to be the most important.
Here’s an example of a false-break in the EURUSD daily chart that led to a top in the market and started a long-term downtrend:
History Teaches Us A Lesson
It’s
worth noting that on the week famous trader George Soros shorted the
British pound and ‘broke’ the Bank of England ( September 16, 1992) -
the chart had shown a massive false-break signal. The chart below shows
the price breaking upwards to new highs and then crashing back down. To
those who follow me regularly you will note that this was actually a
classic
fakey setup, and is clear evidence that this price action strategy has worked for decades.
Final word on false-breaks…
As
traders, if we don’t learn to anticipate and identify deceptions or
‘false-breaks’ in the market, we will lose money to traders who do. If
we pay attention to the price action at key levels on the daily chart
time frame, the ‘writing’ is usually on the wall in regards to
false-breaks.
If I had to leave you with one crucial piece of
advice for your Forex trading career, it would be to drop everything
right now and start studying false-breaks and contrarian trading
approaches. By doing so, you will be ahead of 95% of traders who are
stuck in a cycle of trading off mainstream misconceptions and
ineffective trading methods. As a contrarian, I want to be trading when
the rest of the retail traders are committed to the wrong side of the
market, this can be difficult to do if you don’t understand false-breaks
and fakey patterns, but effective nonetheless. Trading false-breaks and
my proprietary ‘fakey setup’ is a core focus in my
Forex price action trading course,
and I expand on these topics in great detail. I teach my students a
plethora of different price patterns to look out for when trading
false-breaks and fakey setups. This ‘contrarian’ style of trading is
something I strongly believe in, and it has proven itself time and time
again. If you where to learn only one single trading strategy to apply
in your forex trading, this would be on top of the list.