As long as the ES remains below the 1638/41ES resistance region early in the week, this decline is very likely. It is confirmed with a strong break down below 1617ES.
If we do reach the 1601ES level (or even as low as 1591ES), then I would expect a bounce as high as the 1618ES region, and, assuming we don't break back out over 1618ES, we should head down to the 1574-1584 region before consolidating one more time below the 1601ES region, and ultimately heading down to the 1560ES region.
Alternatively, if the market is able to move through the 1638/41ES resistance region, and confirm with a strong move over the 1645ES level, then I think the market will be working its way up to the 1674-1686ES region over the next week or two. So, the difference between these two alternatives is that the market will complete its correction into the 1500s under the first scenario in September, whereas the second scenario will likely take us into October.
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